Project IRR (equity)
20.2%
8-section torrefaction platform
10-Year Revenue
$969M
Pellets + bio-condensate oil
10-Year EBITDA
$352M
Avg 36% margin
10-Year Net Profit
$124M
Post-tax, post-debt service
Annual P&L (adjusted, $M)
IRR sensitivity to pellet price ($/MT)
Sliders are anchored on base-case Torreco economics. Sections 1–3 commission in months 1, 6, and 12 respectively, reaching full 209,084 MT/year pellet capacity by Year 3. Bio-condensate oil (105.68 gal/MT) provides ~18% of revenue at steady state. The feedstock model assumes bought-in wet biomass at $27/MT escalating at 3%/year; sensitivity sliders stress-test these assumptions.
All headline IRR and cashflow figures update live as you move sliders. The base case reflects the Excel model exported 2026-05-12.
Live output — current assumptions
Equity IRR sensitivity across combinations of pellet price and feedstock cost. Base case highlighted in green. Red cells indicate sub-10% IRR.
Equity IRR — Pellet Price vs Feedstock Cost
Equity IRR — Pellet Price vs Bio Oil Price
IRR sensitivity to pellet price — full range
Income Statement — Annual Summary ($M)
Returns summary
Equity IRR
20.2%
NPV @ 20% discount rate
$18M
Min DSCR (Year 3)
1.70×
Avg DSCR (yrs 3–10)
2.30×
DSCR covenant threshold
1.20×
Equity payback period
~6.2 yrs
Capital structure
Total project capex
$263M
Senior debt (65%)
$191.75M
Preferred equity
$40M
Common equity raise
$63.25M
Debt rate / term
8% / 20 yr
Pref equity return
12%